Геополитика евразийского союза рождение «большого пространства» Вадим Воловой




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Fourth Annual Conference


The Eurasian Economic Union: political, economic and social aspects


ABSTRACTS


October 31 - November 1, 2015

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan



ГЕОПОЛИТИКА ЕВРАЗИЙСКОГО СОЮЗА – РОЖДЕНИЕ «БОЛЬШОГО ПРОСТРАНСТВА»


Вадим Воловой, доктор политических наук, Университет им. Миколаса Рёмериса (Литва), лектор.

В докладе на основе геополитической теории и иных актуальных теоретических подходов и оценок планируется проанализировать, кто и почему заинтересован в формировании ЕАЭС, а также рассмотреть вызовы, с которыми может столкнуться новое геополитическое объединение как зарождающееся «большое пространство» в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе, в первую очередь в контексте событий на Украине, а также исламской экстремистской угрозы с юга и китайского факторе.

Основными выводами доклада являются следующие. Первое, ЕАЭС, несмотря на все официальные заверения его участников, является не столько чисто экономическим проектом, сколько частью большой геополитической стратегии Москвы по реинтеграции главных стран пространства СНГ (а именно – России, Белоруссии, Казахстана и обязательно Украины) в сфере своего доминирующего влияния. Второе, ключевым моментом «операции» можно считать вовлечение в Союз Украины, без чего невозможно воссоздание «большого геополитического пространства» во главе с Россией. В какой форме это будет сделано (и случится ли вообще), пока не ясно. Однако, задача минимум Кремля – нейтральная Украины. Третье, основным конкурентом нового геополитического ядра Евразии в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе может стать как Запад, так и Китай.

В ПОИСКАХ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ЕВРАЗИЙСКОЙ ИДЕНТИЧНОСТИ: НАСКОЛЬКО АКТУАЛЬНА ИДЕЯ?


Хачик Галстян, кандидат политических наук, доцент ЕГУ, член Евразийского экспертного клуба.

Основой любого успешного интеграционного проекта, прежде всего, является общность интересов, ценностных ориентиров и представлений, которые в совокупности формируют общую идентичность данной социальной группы, нации, или более крупного цивилизационного объединения. В этом контексте, как с теоретической, так и практической точки зрения актуальными становятся следующие вопросы: о какой идентичности может идти речь в рамках Евразийского экономического союза, и насколько актуальна в современном общественно-политическом дискурсе проблема формирования общеевразийской идентичности?

В рамках данной статьи раскрываются экономические, политические и цивилизационные аспекты формирования общеевразийской идентичности, с помощью которых все народы и сообщества, объединенные в единое евразийское интеграционное пространство, будут жить в экономическом благополучии, в политической стабильности и в полицивилизационном многообразии.

CENTRAL ASIA BETWEEN THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION AND THE SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT: HOW TO PRESERVE NATIONAL INTERESTS?


Fabio Indeo, PhD in Geopolitics, external research fellow at the University of Camerino (Italy) and visiting research associate at the Centre for Energy Governance and Security, Hanyang University, Seoul (South Korea).

Since 1991 post soviet Central Asian republics have had a different approach towards initiatives and projects of regional cooperation in the economic, political and security fields: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have always supported and participated in regional cooperation initiatives, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan appear reluctant to be involved. At present, the implementation of the Eurasian Economic Union represents one of the most influentual attempts to promote cooperation in the region, potentially including the creation of a supranational framework in order to upgrade the cooperation also in the political dimension (starting from the coordination of the respective national foreign policies), even if this option is strongly feared by Central Asian countries.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the Eurasian Economic Union on the Central Asian republics, highlighting their different approaches and also considering that these countries should be included in the Chinese project of the Silk Road Economic Belt, which apparently seems not compatible with Russian strategy. How these two geopolitical strategies will influence the political and economic evolution of Central Asian countries? Furthermore, we can observe that all projects of regional cooperation in Central Asia have been proposed by external players (Russia, China and also the United States, with the “Modern Silk Road” project), which essentially downplay the achievement of national interests and aims as well as the development of a genuine and endogenous Central Asian cooperation.

PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECURITY COMMUNITY IN CENTRAL ASIA


Dina Iglikova, Curator of the OSCE Central Asian Youth Network

The security community theory has become one of the most dominant tools in the regionalism studies. This approach to study regional integration through the prism of norms, identity and values, has increased significantly the potential to study the “missing” dimensions of regional dynamics. The theory allows seeing the regions not only from geopolitical angle, but also as socio-political constructs. In this regard, this paper is built on the recognition that present studies of Central Asia are focused primarily on the positivist theories. Therefore, it employs the security community theory to analyze the processes of regionalization of Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan since the collapse of Soviet Union. The paper examines the prospects for building security community across the following trajectories – shared identity, states’ relations, and institutions. Firstly, it looks into the hermeneutical setting for the emergence of Homo Soveticus shared identity, its decline and contribution to the peaceful transition. Secondly, it explores the state’s relationship in the region by dividing the case into one dyad Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan, and two triads –Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan, Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan. The last but not the least, the paper questions the Central Asian institutional self-sufficiency and the ability to integrate without external actors. It does so through evaluating the existing security regimes of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO). The paper concludes by reflecting on prospects for the security community building in Central Asia.

DETERMINANTS OF SUCCESS AND FAILURE OF CUSTOMS UNIONS


Iana Dreyer, Associate Analyst, EU Institute for Security Studies

SEQUENCING IN CUSTOMS UNION FORMATION: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION


Dr.Gerald Pech, Associate Professor, Economics, KIMEP University. Co-authored with Aidos Alimbekov and Eldar Madumarov.

The model of economic integration introduced by Aghion, Atràs, Helpman (2007) predicts that if there is a dominant country in the integration process it will offer sequential negotiations rather than multilateral negotiations when so doing enables it to exploit negative externalities on countries which join the integration project at a later stage. We demonstrate that this result hinges on exogenous restrictions on the bargaining protocol. In the absence of such restrictions, observed delay in customs union formation requires imperfections such as bargaining frictions, myopia of the joining country, imperfect commitment or uncertain political succession. We find that an extension of the AAH model along these lines better explains observed details of the formation of Eurasian Customs Union and the delay of the entry of Kyrgyzstan.

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION: THE SWAN-CRAB-PIKE PRINCIPLE AT WORK


Kairat Moldashev, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Suleyman Demirel University, Kazakhstan.

The officials and experts in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia before the establishment of the Customs Union (CU) in 2010 and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in 2015 often referred to economic development as a primary goal in creating these organizations, which can be considered as parts of Eurasian regionalism. The exploration of national development strategies of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia suggests that Eurasian regionalism is integrated into them to some extent. Regional integration projects, such as the CU and the EEU are expected to add to the growth of national economies of the member countries as indicated in their strategies. However, the national development strategies and statements of officials show that they have different expectations of how the CU or the EEU should function in order to contribute to domestic economic growth. These differences in the views on ‘proper’ functioning of regional institutions led to the lack of consensus and coordination at the regional level. This paper explores the influence of the economic ideas in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia on these countries’ foreign economic policy in general and on Eurasian regionalism in particular.

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION AND PROSPECTS FOR INDIA


Phool Badan, Associate professor, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.

Eurasian Economic Union is an international organization for regional economic integration. A number of countries outside the post-Soviet space have showed their interest in signing the preferential trade agreements with Eurasian Economic Union. Prominent among them are India, Israel, Vietnam and New Zealand.

So far as India is concerned, it is interested in comprehensive economic partnership with the union. If India joins the organization it would be very beneficial, as it will get a market of nearly 175 million people. India and the members of the union have set up a joint study group to explore the feasibility of a free trade agreement for promoting bilateral trade and investments. India has established friendly relations with all the members of the union. Russia is a trusted and tested friend of India. Both countries have decided to focus on their future business relations, in addition to their robust cooperation in defense, space and nuclear energy resources. Kazakhstan has invited India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd. to explore its Abai bloc for energy resources. India has also signed a deal with Belarus to supply 500 tons of potash fertilizer. Its relations with Armenia are also smooth. India’s relations with prospective member like Kyrgyzstan are also good. The pharmaceutical and oil and gas industries would be the biggest beneficiaries if comprehensive economic partnership agreement is signed between India and the union. North-South corridor is also likely to get a fresh lease of life. But some problems may arise in this regard. India and all the members of the union except Belarus are members of WTO. Negotiations for accession in WTO are underway with Belarus. Thus, it may take some time for opening its market.

REGIONAL COOPERATION IN SOUTH ASIA AND EURASIA: COMPARING SAARC AND EEU


Sanjay Pandey, Chairperson, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

Both India and Russia enjoy a preponderant presence in their respective regions. They share close historical, cultural and ethnic ties with their neighbors. But they also have had problematic relations with some of them. India was seen as reluctant leader and participant in the regional cooperation initiative for some time. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was finally launched on 8 December 1985 by the seven countries of South Asia (Afghanistan became a member in 2007) to promote peace, stability, amity and progress in the region. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) was formed nearly thirty years later on 1 January 2015. Russia has enthusiastically championed it and enjoys leadership role in the organization. Though, primarily an economic grouping, it has political and geo-strategic significance as well.

Some of the notable achievements of SAARC have been establishment of South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA); Social Charter; Convention on Fighting Terrorism; blueprint for poverty alleviation and the setting up of SAARC Developmental Goals (SDGs); SAARC Food Bank; SAARC Development Fund; setting up of the South Asian University; SAARC Cultural Festival etc. Despite these achievements SAARC is seen as a failure by many analysts. The deteriorating regional security environment due to terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan and non-resolution of inter-state disputes and the dismal performance in the social and economic sectors disprove any claims about SAARC’s success. The paper would assess the performance of SAARC and compare it with EEU in terms of origin, objectives, successes and failures/limitations.

CAN EUROPEAN UNION BE AN EXAMPLE FOR EURASIAN INTEGRATION?

Yasar Sari, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey.

Europe is a showcase example of a successful regional integration. European Union’s model of integration is of enormous value since it can be used as a comprehensive, step-by-step plan for other regions in their efforts to integrate. Regional integration of Europe made extensive economic development and democratization possible in the politically fragile environment and weak economy of European countries. More importantly, regional integration brought peace and prosperity to Europe that was severely divided because of the endeavors of European countries to pursue exclusively their own national desires.

European regionalist integration is an example for Eurasian countries in their efforts to grow economically, and stabilize their political situations in the region. Certain questions need to be asked about regional integration in Europe to see whether Eurasian countries can undertake direction toward regional integration. As such there are several questions that need to be closely analyzed: What were the conditions that made regionalist integration possible in Europe? Are those conditions present in Eurasia now? And finally is regionalist integration possible in any regions or is it specific only to some regions?

In this paper, I will answer these three questions, by analyzing the theoretical approaches that explain the conditions under which European integration had developed. Along with theoretical analysis of regionalist integration I will see whether regionalist integration is possible in Eurasian region now. This case study of Eurasia, in the result will enable me to answer the third question of my paper: is regionalist integration possible in any region, or is it specific to only some regions?

TURKIC WORLD AS A COMPONENT PART OF KAZAKHSTAN’S EUROSIANISM


Dinmukhammed Ametbek, PhD, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey.

Kazakhstan is located between Slavic world and Turkic world. This ambiguous identity compels Kazakh decision makers develop the concept of Eurasianism with the focus on Slavic-Turkic and namely Kazakh-Russian cooperation. In this study, I argue that Nazarbayev by introducing his own version of Eurasianism tries to balance Eurasia-Russia with Eurasia-Turkic world. The discourse of Turkic world comes to agenda in Nazarbayev’s speeches, while the integration between Kazakhstan and Russia is intensified. In this context, Turkey as the main power of Turkic world plays crucial role. Although Turkey is not influential power in the post-Soviet space and already has given up its bid to play the role of big brother in Turkic world, Nazarbayev in every occasion tries to pull Ankara towards Eurasian Integration. This policy of Nazarbayev, which can be summarized as Kazakh foreign policy activism in Turkic world serves two aims. The first aim is that this policy is a necessity of multi-vector Kazakh foreign policy. In its turn, the concept of multi-vector policy is a symbol of Kazakhstan’s independence. It hints that Kazakhstan is not in the orbit of Russia but as sovereign state pursues its own foreign policy. In relation to this, the second aim of Kazakhstan’s activism in Turkic world, which is directed to internal politics of Kazakhstan, is to calm down resentments of nationalist Kazakh population towards integration with Russia.

ОСНОВНЫЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ЕВРАЗИЙСКОЙ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ, ОЦЕНКА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИХ ЭФФЕКТОВ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВ РАЗВИТИЯ ИНТЕГРАЦИОННЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ


Наталья Рослякова, младший научный сотрудник, Лаборатория комплексного исследования пространственного развития регионов, Институт проблем региональной экономики РАН (г. Санкт-Петербург)

В работе рассматривается ретроспектива интеграционных процессов на постсоветском пространстве. Исследованы особенности экономических взаимодействий в масштабах Европы, Азии, ЕврАзЭС. Отмечены диспропорции, имеющие место не только в масштабах Евразийского континента. У высокоразвитых стран к востоку (Япония, Южная Корея) и западу (Германия, Франция, Великобритания, Финляндия, Швеция, Нидерланды) наличествует избыточный капитал и технологии, а у стран ЕврАзЭС - избыточные природные ресурсы (наоборот, имеет место дефицит ресурсов у высокоразвитых стран; капитала и технологий у стран ЕврАзЭС). Подобное пространственное распределение производственных факторов, по мнению автора, является естественной основой для запуска интеграционных процессов в рамках всего Евроазиатского континента.

Внимание уделено перспективам российско-белорусской интеграции в контексте российско-европейских экономически и политических взаимоотношений. В целом, рассматривается экономическая ретроспектива и производится попытка оценить экономические эффекты характерные для интеграционных взаимодействий России и Беларуси. Делаются выводы об условиях позитивных и негативных проявления экономических эффектов интеграции.

PERCEPTIONS ABOUT PROSPECTS OF THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION ON FOOD SECURITY IN KYRGYZSTAN


Nurlan Choibekov, MA in Politics and Security (Central Asian), Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe – Academy (OSCE-Academy)

The aim of our research was to investigate and understand the impact that Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) would have on food security in Kyrgyzstan. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), food security exists “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Although Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the EEU is touted as a strategy to ensure sustainable economic growth, to pursue modernization of the economy, and to reduce (or at least halt) development gaps with other EEU countries, the concept and agenda of the EEU itself has been criticized. Moreover, the challenges the country already faces will continue to complicate the economic reforms and integration processes associated with accession. All of these have important implications for food security in Kyrgyzstan. The primary interest of our research was to measure and evaluate what people regulating and working in the food industry were anticipating on the eve of accession, in order to have a base point to compare with how things actually turn out in the months and years that follow. This paper will share findings from interview and survey data gathered from farmers, retail and wholesale merchants, and government ministries between January and July 2015. Our findings promise to significantly increase understanding of how various dimensions of the food production and distribution chain are actually prepared (or preparing) to deal with the coming changes. Such data will useful as a starting point for analyzing how effective their preparation will have been several months (or years) after accession.

EXPERIENCE OF PREMIER – PRESIDENTIALISM AND THE PROSPECTS OF KYRGYZ POLITICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF MEMBERSHIP IN THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION


Gortat Radzislawa, Senior Lecturer, Institute of Political Science, Warsaw University, Poland.

This contribution will focus on why Kyrgyzstan had taken such non Central Asian path of political development and will offer an insight into the process of practical implementation the provisions of the 2010 constitution that took account of the past problems. Emergence of Poland’s versions of premiership-presidentialism that evolved from experience of Poles with various leaders represents a useful point of reference for comparison.

I will argue that Kyrgyzstan is approaching a critical point of its political development. The first cycle of popular elections of 2010-2011 legitimized the political actors who had come to power in the aftermath of revolt of April 2010. The upcoming second set of elections will serve as crucial test for their democratic credentials and ability to govern according to principles of constitutional model of 2010. Membership in the EEU creates an additional challenge for this perspective.

The aim of this paper is to analyze unique Kyrgyz experiment with premier-presidential system of government from 2010-2015. It is also to, based both of Kirghiz realities and evidence from other premier- presidential systems, evaluate whether:

1) The shift to premier-presidentialism has been (and will remain) beneficial to the country’s democratic performance and its political stability despite its imperfections.

2) Or, whether in the post transition period Kyrgyzstan is now entering will result in changes to the rules of the game and a return to the a strong centralized government with an undivided authority. This tendency may be reinforced by for emulation of legal solutions and practices of EEU member states.

The leadership attempts to change the electoral laws and amend the constitution despite of memorandum, represent a subject of particular concern. It is assumed that course and outcome of parliamentary elections in late 2015 will be a decisive factor shaping the model of governance when the only one- term in office of president Atambayev ends in 2017. Taking into account that the prerequisites for maintaining the current constitutional model also exist, various scenarios of probable political development will be outlined.

KYRGYSZTAN’S STATE FRAGILITY: COULD THE EEU BE A SUITABLE ECONOMIV ALTERNATIVE?


Guilherme Mello, University of Coimbra (Portugal) and Scuola Normale Superiore (Italy).

Kyrgyzstan, despite being the smallest economy in Central Asia, adopted economic liberalization policies, envisioning the preservation of a sustainable policy in order to raise its economic development to decouple its internal and external instabilities. By focusing its foreign policy on domestic stability, ensuring their cultural identity and dodging excessive dependencies on its Central Asian neighbors, the EEU strategy brought Kyrgyzstan closer to Central-Asian and Russia and China markets, as an opportunity to widen its economical reach. Through this article, we will evaluate the Kyrgyzstan entrance in the EEU as an integrational process to escape state fragility. We can evaluate that the fragility process observed in Kyrgyzstan, even if volatile, can be described in two periods: a) as a legitimate tentative to strengthen its sovereignty by engaging in economic unions post-independence; b) post-2010, the nascent of democratic experiment Kyrgyzstan brings security concerns, but represents a positive turnaround regarding the beginning of political and economic transformations, since the economic reform proposed by President Almazbek Atambayev, is intended to produce the liberalization of its market, opening up to economies such as Kazakhstan, Russia, China, Iran, and certain terms, Afghanistan, which a free movement of goods, services and capital could create since a major infrastructure system would provide easier access to markets. In this sense, we build up the question: Kyrgyzstan, after colliding with two civil wars, being unstable in fragility indicators by OECD and The Fund for Peace, could be deflected as a fragile state by joining EEU and further economic organizations? The answer will be assessed through a multipolar governance method because it is not only focused on endogenous development factors, but as exogenous development factors. Trade liberalization, as aforementioned, is a product of this connection to foreign markets in favor of the protection of their domestic development, therefore, vital for Kyrgyzstan’s stability.

SMALL STATES ANS ECONOMIC INTERGRATION: EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION AND KYRGYZSTAN


Seyit Ali Avcu, Director, Central Asian Research Center (ORASAM), Kyrgyzstan-Turkey Manas University (Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan).

What does influence a small state decision to join economic integration process? The last fifteen years re-unification and integration efforts in the territory of the former Soviet Union finally yielded results with Russia's reassertion and ending its isolation. In Eastern Europe the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has become an alternative to the European Union and a center of gravity. Eurasian Economic Union expansion efforts in Eastern Europe have started to clash with the European Union's enlargement policy. For many Central Asian countries the Eurasian Economic Union has also emerged as an alternative. In this paper the possible positive and negative effects of Kyrgyzstan's accession to the Eurasian Customs Union are analyzed. As positive results, trade with the Eurasian Customs Union countries and customs revenues will increase, border security will be ensured, investment and the labor remittances will increase. Among negative effects are the unemployment and the rise in prices of the consumer goods because Kyrgyzstan will lose its re-export character. The thesis of this paper is that because Kyrgyzstan's dependence on Russia, security concerns, fear of China, continuation of Russia's cultural hegemony, Kyrgyzstan decided to join Eurasian customs union. Despite the negative economic consequences, Kyrgyzstan joining to the Eurasian Customs Union is seen as a political decision due to the absence of another alternative.


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